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Derechos | Equipo Nizkor
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Derechos | Equipo Nizkor
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24Nov15
Vladimir Putin has already warned of 'serious consequences' for relations between the two countries
Turkey's downing of a fighter jet on Tuesday is thought to be the first time a Nato member has shot down a Russian aircraft since the Cold War, risking a dangerous increase in international tensions.
Vladimir Putin was quick to warn of "serious consequences" for relations between the two countries and Russians were advised not to go on holiday to Turkey as their foreign minister swiftly cancelled his planned visit to Ankara.
Meanwhile, representatives from the UN Security Council were summoned for a briefing and an extraordinary meeting of Nato's North Atlantic Council was called.
What will be the consequences for Russia and Turkey?
Kim Sengupta, The Independent's defence and diplomatic correspondent, said relations between Russia and Turkey could be severely damaged.
He noted the Russian President's "extraordinarily strong language" while accusing Turkey of acting as the "accomplices of terrorists".
"This is for a country that had actually had quite good relations with Russia," Mr Sengupta said. "They have had their differences over Syria and Turkey isn't happy about Russia backing Assad but even then it's been cordial."
That relationship seems to have already been shattered, with the Russian President's warning of "significant consequences for Russian-Turkish relations" coming hours before a slew of moves telling Russians to stop visiting Turkey and news stories in state-sponsored outlets accusing Ankara of "dealing with radical Islamists".
Will Nato be drawn in?
Nato held an emergency meeting of its North Atlantic Council, the alliance's main decision-making body, at Turkey's request.
Ambassadors from 28 member countries met in Brussels for the briefing and to decide on any further action.
The alliance was expected to attempt to de-escalate tensions over Turkey's actions, despite strong statements in recent months condemning Russian incursions into member states' airspace in Europe.
"The last thing Nato wants right now is a new conflict with Russia with everything else that's going on," Mr Sengupta said.
Could this be the start of a new war?
Middle East expert Shashank Joshi, from the Royal United Services Institute, said the combination of Syria's ever-more crowded airspace, Russian probing tactics and the diplomatic tensions create a "real toxic cocktail that can easily erupt into crisis"
"The situation is dangerous because Russia is quite probably deliberately probing Turkish airspace both for military reasons and political reasons," he added.
"These things always proceed in a very unpredictable fashion. We have seen how conflicts can begin when there are large alliances."
But Keir Giles, a fellow at the Chatham House international affairs think-tank, said it was not in the interests of either Turkey or Russia to escalate the situation.
He said Ankara had repeatedly made clear to the Russians what the consequences would be if their aircraft violated Turkish airspace and that while the Russians had said their aircraft had not strayed outside of Syrian airspace, Moscow had "absolutely no credibility whatsoever" given their claims about the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine last year.
"The rules of the game as established by Turkey in this area are rules Russia understands very well," Mr Giles added.
"The fairly measured, low-key response from Russia does suggest that Russia is already aware that it is not going to come out on the positive side on this."
[Source: By Lizzie Dearden, The Independent, London, 24Nov15]
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 | This document has been published on 25Nov15 by the Equipo Nizkor and Derechos Human Rights. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. |