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07Feb15


Urgency increases from world leaders trying to broker Moscow-Ukraine cease-fire


Diplomats and politicians raced Saturday to devise a strategy for halting the fierce combat and mounting civilian casualties in eastern Ukraine, with the focus on how best to get Russia to pull back its troops and heavy weaponry.

The crisis in eastern Ukraine, where government forces are under siege from separatists supported and equipped by Moscow, is dominating the Munich Security Conference, an annual event drawing national security officials, analysts and policymakers from around the world.

As Russian fighters, said by Kiev to number in the thousands, are deployed to support and in some cases lead separatist brigades, officials in Munich are engaged in a frantic round of meetings trying to figure out how to prevent and reverse a major escalation in the war.

The conference is exposing the fault lines between what many U.S. politicians consider the need for a forceful response to Russian aggression and Europe's more measured calculations. A delegation of more than a dozen members of Congress has come to make the case for sending lethal defensive weapons to the beleaguered Ukrainian military, which is under siege and in retreat. But European leaders are warning that move is all but certain to invite Russia to send in even more and bigger weapons, ultimately sending the conflict spiraling further out of control.

Officially, Russia continues to deny sending its soldiers onto Ukrainian territory. But evidence from Western satellites and eyewitnesses suggests otherwise, and in Munich no one is buying into Moscow's narrative. The U.S. and European leaders here all consider Russia the aggressor nation, conducting an invasion of Ukraine in all but name, and there is unanimity that any solution must require Russia to withdraw its troops and support for separatists.

With the battlefields of eastern Ukraine 1,500 miles away, diplomats and politicians scurried to a series back-to-back meetings in full career.

As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke to the conference in defense of Moscow's actions, Vice President Biden and Secretary of State John F. Kerry were huddled in a conference room in Munich's fanciest hotel with their Ukrainian and German counterparts. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was accompanied by Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who just returned from a quick trip to Moscow, where she and French President François Hollande met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, came with Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

No sooner had that meeting broken up than another started, with Poroshenko sitting down with Biden, Kerry and Victoria Nuland, the influential assistant secretary of state for European affairs. Kerry was to have a separate meeting later in the day with Lavrov.

Biden, more than 45 minutes late to the dais due to a flurry of phone calls, delivered a stinging rebuke of Russian subterfuge in Ukraine, as well as to voices - including some in Europe -- who have argued that Moscow has a right to a sphere of influence in the region. He fiercely disputed that notion, saying no nation deserved to have its territorial integrity and free will compromised by another.

"Too often President Putin has promised peace and delivered tanks, troops and weapons," he said.

Merkel, in her speech to the conference, set a tone of urgency, as she warned of the risk of an "uncontrollable escalation" in Ukraine. But her words also crystallized the wide rift between Europe and the United States regarding the best way to respond to Russia's presence on Ukrainian territory. Although pressure has been increasing in Washington for the United States to send arms to the underequipped Ukrainian military, Merkel came down the side of more dialogue.

In one exchange, Sen. Corker (R-Tenn.), who is among more than a dozen members of Congress at the conference, challenged Merkel about German reluctance to agree to provide Ukraine lethal, defensive weapons.

She answered the new chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee bluntly: "Well you see, I am firmly convinced that this conflict cannot be solved by military means." If weapons were provided, she said, Putin would likely up the ante, providing far more superior weapons to separatists. "I understand your viewpoint and also the discussion that is going on, but the progress that Ukraine needs cannot be achieved by more weapons," she said.

But Merkel -- who will be at talks at the White House on Monday -- reserved her toughest criticism for Moscow, saying that its support for separatists in Ukraine amounted to a "disrespect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine" that threatened the peace in Europe. She added that the failure to honor the last cease-fire deal suggested that there were no guarantees a new deal would be respected even if Putin agreed to one.

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), who appeared on a panel, accused Merkel of making a big mistake by refusing to supply Kiev with better weapons.

"She can't see how arming people who are willing to fight and die for their freedom makes things better," he said. "I do."

Graham asked Merkel to remember how the world helped Germany recover from the ashes of World War II and said it was Europe that courted Kiev to reject an economic deal with Russia in the first place, precipitating a full-blown crisis 14 months later.

"The United States Congress is beginning to form a consensus -- Republican and Democrat, conservative and liberal -- that it is in our national security interest, and the interest of the world, to stand by Ukraine politically, economically and give them the defensive capability to counter what Mr. Lavrov says is not happening," he said.

When it came Lavrov's turn to address the conference, he voiced optimism for a deal, even as he spun a wholly different narrative of events. He accused the West of supporting a government in Kiev that he said came to power via a "coup d'etat" as well as anti-Russian and xenophobic paramilitaries. He said additional weapons there would "exacerbate the tragedy of Ukraine."

He said that if a cease-fire deal is reached, Russia would seek to guarantee its implementation. But, he added, "you shouldn't pretend that these people are going to obey what you tell them. They live in their own country."

Lavrov faced a number of skeptical questions from the audience, from why Russia was sending its planes into European airspace with the transponders turned off to why it is causing misery to civilians in eastern Ukraine. Several times, his denials of Moscow's interventions prompted open guffawing from the audience. At one point, Lavrov looked wearily at his wristwatch.

In an afternoon panel, an impassioned Poroshenko called for a new, internationally recognized cease-fire, followed by a negotiated and democratic longer-term solution to the crisis. Suggesting the fate of such a deal now rested with Putin, he said, "this is an important challenge, and we should have an answer in very few hours, or very maximum days."

Should there be no agreement, he said, Ukraine "should have the right to defend our people and our territory with the support of the whole world." In that case, he called for the provision of defensive weapons to Ukraine. He answered critics in Europe who argue such a move would only escalate the crisis by saying it was the lack of arms thus far that had emboldened Ukraine's opponents to act without caution. He vowed that any arms provided would only be used defensively, not offensively.

At stake, he said, was "the freedom of Europe, independence of Europe and security in the world."

In an indication of how worried Europeans are about Russia's actions in eastern Europe, the entire day was devoted to forums about Ukraine. In contrast, less than two hours were set aside in the evening to discuss terrorism and turmoil in the Middle East, a surprisingly short attention span a month after the terrorist attacks at the offices of the satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo in Paris.

[Source: By Anthony Faiola, Michael Birnbaum and Carol Morello, The Washington Post, Munich, 07Feb15]

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